A complex weather pattern is gathering together in the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to move east, bringing torrential rain and the threat of a tropical depression or weak tropical storm to

The National Hurricane Center is giving the system in the Gulf of Mexico a medium potential (40% chance) for development. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and gradual development is possible as the low moves slowly eastward or northeastward.

A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form next week. Another possibility: development of a compact hurricane.

A sloppy mashup of showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to make its way toward South Florida bringing days of rain beginning Sunday that could total up to a foot in some areas through mid-week.

The ingredients are: an elongated area of disturbed weather across the Gulf that includes an area of low pressure offshore of the Mexican coast, a large low-pressure system over Central America, and the remnants of a tropical depression from the Pacific Ocean.

South and Central Florida are likely to get 3 inches or more of rainfall between Sunday and Tuesday. Some forecasts predict more than a foot of rain.

South Florida should get ready for four straight days of heavy rain and up to a foot of it as a tropical depression or storm will likely form in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

In the Gulf of Mexico, disorganized showers and thunderstorms are present over the western Gulf, associated with a trough of low pressure. A broad area of low pressure is anticipated to form over the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend.